A new study finds that climate change and El Nino combined to rev up last month's explosively intensifying Hurricane Polo, which was the longest-lasting Category 5 storm ever to churn in the Pacific.
Global warming caused by the burning of coal, oil and gas was the bigger of the two culprits, adding about nearly 10 kph to its already monstrous strength, according to a joint study published on Thursday by the science teams World Weather Attribution and Climate Central. El Nino contributed a bit less, about 8 kph, a study co-author said.
Climate change made the conditions that fuelled the hurricane 23 times more likely, while El Niño—the natural and temporary warming of parts of the Pacific—made it 14 times more likely, the study found. It all has to do with the 31.2 degrees Celsius waters that were as much as 2 degrees Celsius warmer than normal, the study said.
This year, with a super strong El Nino, has set records for strength and longevity of Pacific storms. Polo set the record for time spent at Category 5 in the Pacific at two-and-a-half days.
“El Nino and climate change both made this hurricane stronger than it would have otherwise been, but the effect of climate change is even bigger than the one of El Nino,” said climate scientist and study co-author Friederike Otto, who coordinates the international science team behind World Weather Attribution.
“El Nino comes and goes, but climate change only gets worse. That means that now every hurricane that will occur in the East Pacific has at least this climate change signal making it stronger. And as long as we keep burning fossil fuels, that will only get bigger,” Otto added.
While Hurricane Polo ultimately weakened considerably before it hit a sparsely populated part of Mexico, scientists remain fascinated by how it turbocharged from a tropical storm to a top-of-the-chart Category 5 hurricane in about 24 hours.
But three other outside scientists—Jeff Masters of Yale Climate Connections, University of Pennsylvania's Michael Mann and North Carolina State University's Carl Schreck—said they believe the study underestimates how much climate change has added to Polo's strength. Masters pointed to Gilford's own 2024 study that found climate change added 30 kph to hurricanes in the Atlantic from 2019 to 2023.
Gilford acknowledged that Thursday's report could be underestimating climate change's impact a bit but said he was factoring in other conditions and being conservative. - AP
